Jane Powdrell-Culbert doesn’t talk a lot, so when she threw down the gauntlet, people listened.
“We’re declaring war,” she said.
Those three words, uttered softly but firmly by the normally reticent Republican state representative from Corrales, said volumes about how embattled GOP lawmakers are approaching the November elections, in which every seat in the Legislature is up for grabs.
For the badly outnumbered Republicans, forced to use guerrilla tactics throughout the just-completed 2020 session, November looms as a crucible. Though they think the outcome of the 2020 Legislature gives them a “values” argument against Democrats, they also worry that national forces in a presidential election year are an X-factor they can neither control nor predict.
Just before packing their up and heading home Thursday, GOP stalwarts assessed their chances this fall by noting political allegiances — and even recent momentum — may matter less to New Mexicans who favor gun rights and personal freedoms, disapprove of legalizing recreational cannabis and worry about Democrats’ “overspending” on the state’s budget.
“I’m very confident the people of New Mexico understand that their values are not being represented by many in the Legislature,” said Rep. Jim Townsend, R-Artesia, the House minority leader.
Rep. Martin Zamora, R-Clovis, agreed. “This will have been a good session for the citizens of New Mexico to reflect on how their representatives voted and what that means to them,” he said. “And that will make a difference come Election Day.”
But many observers say more than local emotion will be at play.
The state GOP’s reach for victory is likely to be affected — either overshadowed, tainted or aided — by the presidential election, in which Donald Trump will face the Democratic nominee.
University of New Mexico political science professor Lonna Atkeson said Trump is a polarizing figure around the state — and Republicans cannot overlook the impact he may have on their races.
“That’s the real difficulty,” Atkeson said. “There’s going to be a lot of national noise that could make it hard for Republicans to get out their message.”
Democrats now outnumber Republicans 46-24 in the House, following sweeping losses in the 2018 election, and 26-16 in the Senate.
Statewide voter numbers look daunting for Republicans hoping to the narrow the gaps. Some 45 percent of registered voters are Democrats, compared with 30 percent who are Republicans. The remaining 25 percent are independents and Libertarians.
Still, Republicans talk tough.
“We can take the House,” said Rep. Rod Montoya, R-Farmington, at the GOP’s post-session news conference Thursday.
Townsend said the party is attracting some two dozen candidates to run for House seats this year and at least a dozen to run for the Senate.
Pollster and political analyst Brian Sanderoff of Albuquerque said Republicans could have a chance to take back some seats in November because many that went to Democrats in 2018 remain vulnerable.
He pointed to the District 20 seat in Albuquerque, where first-time Democratic Rep. Abbas Akhil is not running for a second term. Akhil squeaked past incumbent Republican Jim Dines in 2018.
“That’s a very vulnerable seat, anchored in a well-to-do Republican area,” Sanderoff said.
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The District 53 seat, held by Rep. Willie Madrid, D-Chaparral, has “flipped back and forth” for years between Republicans and Democrats, Sanderoff said.
Several House Republicans said “messaging” is everything this year.
Townsend and Rep. Jason Harper of Rio Rancho said party leaders will be rolling out an aggressive plan to reach voters on issues that matter to them.
“I think Republicans historically have not done a very good job of messaging,” Townsend said, adding his party is turning more to social media while continuing to hold old-fashioned town hall meetings.
Townsend held such an event Thursday night in Artesia after returning from Santa Fe.
Sanderoff said Republicans might be able to use contentious issues like gun control, perceived constitutional threats, legalization of recreational cannabis and abortion rights to convince conservative voters from both major parties and independents to back GOP candidates.
“The independents make or break these elections in most of these districts,” Sanderoff said.
Steve Pearce, chairman of the state Republican Party, was not available to discuss the issue, a spokesman said.
Sanderoff and Townsend both said voters in rural areas paid attention to Democrats’ successful effort to pass a measure allowing law enforcement to petition a court to seize firearms from a person considered a threat. County sheriffs from around the state showed up at the Roundhouse to oppose the measure, arguing it would infringe on constitutional rights.
Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is expected to sign the so-called red-flag bill into law.
Republicans pointed to the bill during their Thursday news conference.
“If you are a freedom-loving New Mexican, you missed out,” Montoya said. “They decided to take your freedoms away from you.”
Rep. Candy Spence Ezzell, an outspoken Roswell Republican, said she believes the gun control issue is enough to launch her party back into power. She has received thousands of emails from New Mexicans concerned that their right to own a gun was being threatened, she said.
She also said Republicans speak for industries that are important to rural New Mexico, such as oil and gas, and agriculture.
“If we don’t succeed,” she said, “rural communities are not going to have a voice anymore.”
Harper, who said an “all-hands-on-deck” approach to the November election is necessary, noted if the party loses big again, it could “become lost.”
Townsend said that’s not going to happen.
“We think there is a big upswell of people across the state who are encouraging us to do what we are doing, and we are rising to that challenge,” he said. “We’re gonna give it a try. If I didn’t think we could do this, I wouldn’t be working so hard.”
